Log-optimal economic evaluation of probability forecasts

optimal joint survival probability of xl reinsurance contracts in iran insurance company

اگر تنها یک صنعت جهت حفظ تعادل در بازار جهانی ضروری باشد، می توان ادعا نمود که آن صنعت بیمه است. صنعت بیمه بدون کمک صنعت بیمه اتکایی قادر به انجام وظیفه خویش نخواهد بود. اکثر تحقیقات انجام گرفته در زمینه بیمه اتکایی تنها با در نظر گرفتن منافع شرکت بیمه شده بوده است و منافع شرکت بیمه گر اتکایی کمتر مورد توجه بوده است. در این رساله با در نظر گرفتن منافع همزمان هر دو شرکت بیمه گذار اصلی و بیمه گر ...

Combining Probability Forecasts

Linear pooling is by the far the most popular method for combining probability forecasts. However, any nontrivial weighted average of two or more distinct, calibrated probability forecasts is necessarily uncalibrated and lacks sharpness. In view of this, linear pooling requires recalibration, even in the ideal case in which the individual forecasts are calibrated. Toward this end, we propose a ...

Combining Economic Forecasts

Are Economic Forecasts Rational?

Properties of Optimal Forecasts∗

Evaluation of forecast optimality in economics and Þnance has almost exclusively been conducted under the assumption of mean squared error loss. Under this loss function optimal forecasts should be unbiased and forecast errors should be serially uncorrelated at the single period horizon with increasing variance as the forecast horizon grows. Using analytical results, we show in this paper that ...